Fresh from Gen Con I posted that the OSR is Dead, or rather more to the point I asked if it was and then followed up with a comment that the movement was dead.
Many took umbrage with this.
Here is the deal.
The OSR as a movement has satisfied it's goals.
There is unprecedented access to "old school" and "old school-like" material. Yes, several thousand copies of Swords & Wizardry are going out, WotC has AD&D out in stores now and D&D5 looks like a streamline, even old-school, version of 3e, these though are only the largest examples of why the "fight" is over. If the R is Revolution then the revolution is over. If the R is Renascence then we are in a post enlightenment period. What was learned is not lost, but it does change.
The OSR as a community will continue to thrive.
Anecdotally we have had many posts from the the first rush of bloggers (present company included) talk about how hits and views are down. How posting is down. We might not ever see the growth we did of 2008-2010 again. But that doesn't mean there is not a constant flow of ideas, text and things we can all do.
What does this all mean though really?
Will people stop playing Basic Fantasy, S&W or LL? No. Those games will rise and fall by desires of their fans and market forces.
Will people stop making material? No way. They didn't stop when 1st Ed replaced OD&D or 2nd ed replaced that and so on. In fact it is now easier than ever before.
It will be interesting to see what D&D5 does to the OSR community. Will people jump ship for this new game? Will the backlash against WotC continue? Will the Pathfinder continue to grow? 2013 will be interesting to say the least, but one thing is sure, don't expect it to be the same as now.